• 20 questions
• 17 participated
• Most answered all/most questions

• Brier score: \[\frac{1}{N}\sum_i (f_i - o_i)^2\]

• Higher score \(\rightarrow\) large deviation from the truth \(\rightarrow\) worse

• Caveat: Does not reward risk-taking for rare events

Answer: No

• lecture notes + slides + textbook
• Required readings
• Suggested readings in textbook often useful (though not required)

• Clarity, clarity, clarity
• Use section headers if you can
• Underlining keywords is helpful, esp. if otherwise unclear!
• Small intro, then one paragraph per idea. First sentence of each paragraph is key
• Don't forget examples if required

• Make it clear you know something beyond the obvious
• Page filling is useless
• Not an opinion, but an argument
• Diagrams can be helpful, but they do not replace the text